Polls: Coakley, Baker in tight contest marked by gender gaps

Hours before they face off with their fellow gubernatorial candidates in a televised debate, Attorney General Martha Coakley and former health insurance executive Charlie Baker appear to be in a dead heat in their battle for the Corner Office, according to two polls released on Monday morning.

A Suffolk University and Boston Herald poll of 500 likely voters showed Coakley, the Democrat, with 44 percent, and Baker, the Republican nominee, with 43 percent.

The three independents in the race -- Evan Falchuk, Jeff McCormick and Scott Lively -- picked up a combined 4 percent.

"Massachusetts is the quintessential Democratic state, and yet more Republicans than Democrats have served as governor in the past 100 years," David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said in a statement accompanying the poll. "The Coakley-Baker race is very close, and while the two candidates are fairly even in favorable ratings, Coakley's unfavorables are much higher at 42 percent, compared to Baker's 27 percent."

Another poll of likely voters, from the Western New England University Polling Institute and including leaners, found Baker ahead of Coakley by one point. The independent candidates received a combined five percent of support from likely voters.

Forty-one percent of voters said they could change their minds before Nov. 4.

Both polls had Coakley with an 11-point lead among likely voters who are women. The Western New England poll had Coakley 16 percent behind Baker among male likely voters.

"Democratic candidates rely on that gender gap among women to put together a winning coalition, but Coakley needs to expand her lead among women and win over some of Baker's male supporters to prevail," said Tim Vercellotti, the director of the polling institute.

The polls come as the gubernatorial candidates, seeking to replace Gov. Deval Patrick, are expected to attend an hour-long debate in Springfield. The 7 p.m. debate, sponsored by a western Massachusetts media consortium that includes Western New England University, will be broadcast live on WGBY-TV, CBS 3 Springfield, ABC-40, FOX-6 and NBC-22, as well as stream live on MassLive.com.

In the Suffolk-Herald poll, respondents were asked about November's four ballot questions. They said they would vote down proposed repeals of indexing the gas tax to inflation (50.6 to 36.2) and the 2011 casino law (52.8 to 38.4), as well as a proposed expansion of the bottle deposit law (58.2 to 34.4).

Suffolk-Herald poll respondents said they would approve the ballot question guaranteeing earned sick time by a 46.8 to 35.2 margin.

The Suffolk-Herald poll also asked respondents about Baker's remark to a female reporter. During a back and forth last week, Baker called FOX25 reporter Sharman Sacchetti "sweetheart" and later apologized as Democrats stepped up their criticism of the remark.

Asked if they believed the remark was "condescending," 47 percent said no. Thirty-nine percent said yes, while 13.6 percent were undecided. Respondents also said they trusted Baker to "stand up for women's rights and the handling of issues important to women" by a 46.8 to 34.2 margin.

Forty-five percent of likely voters felt Massachusetts is heading in the right direction to 41 percent who believed it is on the wrong track. Fifty-six percent also approved of Gov. Patrick's job performance, while 36 percent disapproved.

In the Western New England University Polling Institute survey, 45 percent said "things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track," to 44 percent said the state is headed in the right direction.

The Suffolk-Herald poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent and took place between Sept. 25 and Sept. 28, through interviews on landlines and cell phones.

The Western New England University Polling Institute's survey, which polled 416 likely voters, had a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points. The poll occurred between Sept. 20 and Sept. 28, via telephone.

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